business-planI’ve got a physical product idea related to the Australian Football League’s (AFL) teams.
I have no formal training in business.
What’s a standard process for evaluating the business case of a new product?
i.e. the product idea’s likelihood of success.
This is a very broad question so I'll give you some pointers where to look. The area of study you're interested in is called marketing research. Wikipedia has a good overview and your favorite bookstore should have some some introductory texts that go into further detail.
Having a background in a field that includes experimentation will be helpful.
If this is a small/side project and you want to keep things informal, just make prototypes and gather lots of feedback from people who are not afraid to tell you the truth. Then refine and repeat until you get something good (or until you've heard enough times it's not the best idea).
Finally, since you mention a professional sports league, be sure you are in compliance with any requirements to use their intellectual property.
The nutshell version is there are three basic rules:
Not email, not survey. Talk. You want the raw, unfiltered information - straight out of the horse’s mouth. Ask questions. Put an idea forward, then ask if they’d buy and why. At what price.
If relevant, test the market by taking a few pre-orders. You’ll sometimes be surprised by the number of times prospective buyers say “yeah I could use and buy that” and then suddenly sheep out when you ask them to pull out their checkbook - it’s a great test to know if your idea is a “nice to have, maybe I’d buy, but actually not that needed” vs an “OMG shut up and take my money” type of idea.
In most cases, that’s really it. Honestly. If you’re not talking to your future users you’re betting the house that clients will come if you build it. They won’t.
There are exceptions, of course. Henry Ford famously quipped that had he asked his future clients what they had wanted, they’d have answered stronger horses. And yes, the legend goes that Pierre Desnos made up figures to convince investors to fund Europe Assistance. But the truth is that most of the time, we’re not that innovative and entrepreneurs are be better off interacting with clients.
On more practical note, the Google search term you’re looking for is “Customer Development”. I’d recommend going through Steve Blank’s website. It’s full of colorful war stories on the topic. And there are plenty of other resources on the topic. Oh, and on the topic of marketing, try the colorful “Duct Tape Marketing”.
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