markets, critical-massLet’s look at a StackExchange, like the site right here, as a market. The buyer is the question-asker, and the seller is the answerer. I admit that the currency (reputation points) has quite peculiar properties, and certainly has a decent amount of inflation. Nevertheless, one could characterize a StackExchange as a market.
My question In this market, how can one estimate the number of “transactions” (questions with an accepted answer) that are needed every day for the market to survive in the long-term? By surviving, I mean that the number of answered questions increases over time and does not go down (like the cases was for this dead stackexchange).
Please only answer, if you are able to come to a numeric conclusion, like 10 answered questions per day (this is to avoid this becoming an academic exercise in thinking complex thoughts and listing factors). Once you have stated your estimate, I would really like to know the reasoning behind your estimate.
It's exactly this answer that the evolving rules of Area51.SE are set to identify. I'd say that StackExchange has the most insight into this very question, though Quora, Qato and OSQA sites all have their own ideas about it.
After several iterations, the current signs of critical mass are that a site must have met or exceeded all the following lower limits:
(where "+" means "at least")
Note that these are signs of success, of hitting critical mass. A site is not a failure just because it has not yet hit those numbers: it may yet do so. Part of the art of business is correctly guessing when to persist; and when to quit and try something new instead. There are plenty of adages on the subject:
fail cheap, fail early, fail often
is one. And then there's W.C. Fields':
If at first you don't succeed, try, try again. Then quit. No use being a damn fool about it.
StackExchange has arrived at the above figures through a few years, and many dozens of sites launched (and many failed), of experience: and in estimating the critical mass of markets, experience is the only thing that means anything.
Let me repeat that last point, because it's crucial: in estimating the critical mass of markets, experience is the only thing that means anything.
One cannot robustly estimate these things through a theoretical exercise. Only trial, failure and success mean anything. Any course on business / enterprise / entrepreneurship / economics that tells you otherwise, is telling you something untrue. Get a refund now!
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