Economics Stack Exchange Archive

Real vs Reported Inflation

The news reported that the cost for standard food items consumed during thanksgiving feasts have increased an average [13%][1] in the last year. How are we experiencing this much of an increase in food stuffs but not experiencing real inflation at or approaching 13% rather reported [under 4%][2]. Is there some deflation happening elsewhere that is offsetting the inflation in the food sector? Or is the reported inflation being kept artificially low to avoid paying more to service debt?

Note: The original story I saw on the news claimed 37% rise from USD31 to USD43. This may have been local pricing as I live in a agriculture heavy area so we typically see lower food prices for these staples though not this year. [1]: http://moneyland.time.com/2011/11/11/your-thanksgiving-dinner-is-going-to-cost-13-more-this-year/ [2]: http://www.tradingnrg.com/u-s-inflation-september-2011-rose-by-0-3-17-october-2011/

Answer 529

Yes, there is a lot of deflation happening elsewhere.

Added to that, whatever the "standard food items consumed during thanksgiving feasts" are, they're unlikely to be representative of an annual food bill: according to wikipedia, USA thanksgiving (and USA Christmas) feature turkey heavily, unlike the rest of the year); additionally, food is only part of the basket of goods used to measure inflation.

So there's no reason why feast foods should drive any more than a very small component of inflation.

As it's the US you're interested in, the detailed reports are available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics - see the detailed report tables. In some months energy has been deflationary, in some months apparel has been.

There is also the possibility that feast foods at feast times are particularly price-inelastic, and particularly income-inelastic, which means that they will exhibit disproportionately high prices, relative to other goods, even in an otherwise deflationary / economically-fragile environment.


All content is licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0.